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I looked up on jisho.org a translation for 'new year's resolution' and it gave me two entries: 新{しん}年{ねん}の抱{ほう}負{ふ} and 年{ねん}頭{とう}の誓{ちが}い. The only difference given on the site is that the latter one is an expression in addition to being a noun, and a quick lookup also shows that 新年の抱負 appears far more often in search results. Is popularity the only difference between these two terms?

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The difference in meaning is not very subtle. In real life, the two expressions would rarely be interchangeable, either.

「新年{しんねん}の抱負{ほうふ}」 is more common because it sounds lighter and it is easier to use than 「年頭{ねんとう}の誓{ちか}い」.

「抱負」 means "ambition", "aspiration", "plan", "hope", etc. In short, it just refers to what you plan to do.

「年頭の誓い」 sounds fairly serious and heavy because 「誓い」 means "oath", "vow", "pledge", etc.

Therefore, people are far more used to asking others about their 「新年の抱負」 than asking them to publicly make 「年頭の誓い」. The latter could scare many people away. It would me anyway.

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