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My understanding --admittedly limited-- is that in Japanese, people say as much as they can with as little words as possible. So I wondered why ないだろう would be used in everyday speaking instead of まい? The latter seems shorter and easier to use than the former.

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Your understanding is very flawed. For the quickest counter-example available, I recommend most 丁寧語 forms (but really, all of Japanese should work for that purpose). –  Dave May 20 '12 at 16:49
I wonder sometimes if people really fully read the posts. I already said my understanding is limited. So your first sentence was unnecessary. Then you mention: most 丁寧語 forms without any link or explanation. But ok, thanks for posting. –  dotnetN00b May 20 '12 at 18:04
I'd say that most if not all people posting questions here have some "flaw" (even if it's a minor one) on their understanding of Japanese, and it shouldn't be considered negative here. :) –  atlantiza May 20 '12 at 19:20
I think we still use まい in daily conversations, only in a phrase「~~じゃあるまいし。」, e.g. 「小学生じゃあるまいし、それくらいわかるだろ?」「何駄々こねてんだ、子どもじゃあるまいし!」「聖徳太子じゃあるまいし、そんないっぺんに喋られて分かるか!」「完璧‌​になんかできねえよ、機械じゃあるまいし。」etc...n-lab.org/library/mondai/… –  user1016 May 21 '12 at 6:17
With so much talk about flaws, how could I not make an appearance? =D –  Flaw May 22 '12 at 16:01

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up vote 6 down vote accepted

To answer the question in the title, yes, it is generally only used in literary text and, I would say less often, on TV. It could also potentially be used in a really formal speech or something like that.

I remember in my 9th or 10th month of studying the language I tried this out on a Japanese friend, saying something like 行くまい instead of 行かないだろう. I got a weird look followed by a laugh, and he explained that it would never be used this way. The only explanation he could offer was that it sounded archaic, and this is the reason it's not generally used - the same reason that we don't start using old English in English conversations.

Sure, it's fair to say that users of the Japanese language tend to shorten things a lot, but that's not to say that the shortest way is always the normal or "modern" way. For example, the archaic form いかぬ meaning いけない is not used in modern Japanese.

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But the derived form いかん is. –  Yuuwa May 17 at 12:28

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